Bob De Pasquale

November Housing Market Conditions


SOURCE: Michael Polzler, Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada Inc.

 

There’s been a lot of talk about real estate in the news in recent months. We’ve heard about declining housing starts, falling existing home sales, double-digit price depreciation, subprime fallout and foreclosures – in the United States. Fortunately, we live in Canada. And Canadian real estate markets are far-better positioned than their American counterparts for a good number of reasons.

  1. Subprime mortgages represent less than five per cent of our market nationally.
  2. Foreclosures occur in about one quarter of one per cent of mortgage transactions in this country.
  3. Canadians have more equity in their homes.
  4. We have less debt than our neighbours south of the border.
  5. Speculation has played little or no role in existing home sales in Ontario.
  6. The fundamentals of our economy are relatively solid. Of the G8 countries, only Canada is expected to show growth in 2008 and 2009.
  7. The Canadian banking system is one of the best in the world, relying more on old-fashioned lending than innovative financial products geared toward profit.
  8. The Canadian job market is stronger than the US, adding more than 200,000 jobs so far this year.
  9. Interest rates remain favourable.
  10. Housing values in Ontario major centres did not experience serious, double-digit price appreciation year-after-year for an extended period. Our markets were characterized by stable, healthy growth.
  11. Immigration continues to play a key role in housing markets. Between 2001 and 2006, more than 1.1 million immigrants came to this country, with about half settling in the province of Ontario. Immigrants tend to purchase a home within the first five years of living in Canada.

Real estate is cyclical. There will be peaks and valleys. The more restrained the peak, the more modest the valley.

There is no question that market conditions have moderated from 2007’s record pace. More listings, softer housing values, longer days on market – but most centres are relatively solid. While some buyers and sellers will adopt a wait-and-see attitude, there are those that will continue to venture forward.

They’ll need the services of a knowledgeable, experienced real estate professional to navigate the storm. They will look to you for information in today’s complex real estate environment. Understanding market conditions will be of paramount importance to today’s buyers and sellers, especially as conditions change in markets across the country.

That said, sellers will need to be realistic in setting a selling price. Listing a property at fair-market value will ensure that it will sell in a reasonable amount of time. This is not the time to test the market. Those that are truly interested in selling their properties know that over-priced homes risk stagnation. Buyers in today’s market will need to be careful not to overextend themselves. They should know exactly what they can afford. Pre-approval for a mortgage loan is ideal because it lets buyers know exactly how much they can spend on their new home.

Once educated, your clients will come to rely on your expertise. Make sure your follow-up skills are honed and your customer service is par excellence.

Looking forward, we anticipate a continuation of stable market activity, minus the urgency present in past. Gone are the multiple offers that left both buyers and sellers dissatisfied. The increase in the number of homes listed for sale are a definite advantage for purchasers who now have the luxury of time in making one of the most important decisions of a lifetime. For sellers, the time to trade-up has never been better.

Canadians are great believers in homeownership – a fact underscored by the close to 70 per cent who own homes in this country. History has proven time and time again that real estate is a solid, long-term investment that appreciates at a rate of about five per cent annually. You can’t live in your mutual fund, and after the last month in the financial markets, quite frankly, we’re not sure you’d want to.


KW Home Prices Continue To Rise On Mixed Results


SOURCE: K-W Real Estate Board

KITCHENER, ON (September 3, 2008) - The value of residential real estate held its own in August, even as the dog days of summer have resulted in mixed sales result across some price ranges, according to the Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate Board.

The average sale price of all residential properties sold in Kitchener-Waterloo and area in August jumped almost eight percent to $260,684, up from $241,540 one year ago. Similarly, the median sale price increase in August approached the seven percent mark to $242,000.

During the same period, there were a total of 466 home sales recorded compared with 595 the same month one year ago, a decline of almost 22 percent.

While sales results were mixed depending on the particular price range, demand for higher priced homes remained buoyant in August, with sales of properties in the $400,000-plus jumping 26 percent. Home selling in the $250,000 - $275,000 range were on par with August 2007 results with 64 sales.

Properties in lower price ranges experienced a more general decline in sales. For example, the number of homes selling for between $200,000 - $225,000 were down almost 50 percent.

While overall sales softened last month, the market continued its approach to a balanced state with a 6.5 percent increase in new listings in August. The total number of active listings increased six percent to 1,921 properties.

Canada's housing market cools in face of sharply slower economic growth

Eric Shackleton, The Canadian Press

TORONTO - Canada heard fewer hammers building new homes in July after prices rose at their slowest pace in over six years in June, as a result of a sharply slowing economy in many parts of the country, although some areas remained hot.

Canada's national economy is flat on its back after two straight monthly declines in employment and people are not inclined to make big ticket purchases like homes, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

The Canadian economy has been hurt by the slowdown in the United States, brought on by the worldwide credit crunch, which has hurt Canada's export sensitive foresty and automotive industries leading to thousands of layoff announcements.

Softening commodity prices, especially for oil, are also creating uncertainty in the market place.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Monday that July's annual rate of housing starts was 186,500 units, down from 215,900 units in June.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada said Western Canada's softening market slowed housing prices to their slowest pace in over six years in June.

Nationally, contractors' selling prices rose 3.5 per cent between June 2007 and June 2008, compared with the 4.1 per cent year-over-year increase in May.

The housing market is downshifting from the elevated rates of activity of recent years, Guatieri said.

Sales volumes fell sharply around the start of 2008, then price growth downshifted and now homebuilders are scaling back, he said.

Brent Weimer, a senior economist at CMHC, said the figures bring the year's activity more in line with the agency's 2008 forecast of about 200,000 housing starts.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts fell 14.8 per cent in July from June.

The June price increase was the slowest rate of growth since March 2002 when year-over-year prices increased by 3.4 per cent.


KW Home Sales Remain Favourable to National Forcast


K-W HOME SALES REMAIN FAVOURABLE RELATIVE TO NATIONAL FORECAST

KITCHENER – Sales of residential properties in Kitchener-Waterloo and area declined 5.7 percent during the first six months of the year, while the total value of those sales increased 0.5 percent to $930 million.


June 2008 sales

The 9.2 percent decline in the sale of single family detached homes was tempered by a 1.3 percent drop in sales of attached homes.

While sales to the end of June stand in contrast to the record pace of 2007, results to date in 2008 remain favourable relative to projections by the Canadian Real Estate Association that sales on a national basis are expected to decline by 11.5 percent this year.

The decline in home sales was limited to properties selling for less than $225,000. By contrast, there were 2,179 sales of residential properties for more than $225,000 to the end of June, compared to 1,958 for the same period in 2007.

Also bucking the slower sales trend was the demand for condominium units, the sales of which increased 7.9 percent to the end of June for a total of 644 sales.

In a similar vein, homes selling for more than $500,000 experienced triple digit increases relative to sales one year ago.

The average sale price of all homes sold between January and June 2008 jumped 7.5 percent to $264,888 during the first six months of the year. Similarly, the median price of home sales to the end of June increased 6.5 percent to $242,000.

The average sale price of single family detached homes to the end of June was $302,905, a 7.9 percent increase. The median sale price of these same properties increased 7.0 percent to $272,000.

“Residential sales remain healthy despite falling short of the records set last year,” says Karen Shartun, President of the Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate Board. “I expect demand for higher priced homes to be the key driver of sales as we work through this period of economic uncertainty.”

Shartun continues to believe that residential property sales in Kitchener-Waterloo and area will outperform national sales results, demonstrating the consumer confidence in local real estate and an economy that is better positioned to weather the recessionary threats.

Other residential real estate sales-related highlights from the first half of 2008 include:

• a modest 1.5 percent decline in the 5,591 new listings processed;

• an 8.3 percent decline in the average number of days for listing on the market; and,

• strong consumer interest in cooperatives and link homes.


Ontario Expands Land Transfer Tax Refund Program


The McGuinty government is giving all first-time homebuyers a break on land transfer tax by proposing to expand the Land Transfer Tax Refund Program to include purchases of resale homes, Finance Minister Dwight Duncan announced today.

“Expanding this Land Transfer Tax refund is an important part of our government’s commitment to helping Ontarians buying their first home,” Duncan said.

Effective midnight tonight, first-time buyers of resale homes, as well as newly constructed homes, would be eligible for a refund from the provincial government of up to $2,000 of the Land Transfer Tax paid.

The expanded Land Transfer Tax Refund Program for First-time Homebuyers is part of a package of new tax initiatives announced in the 2007 Fall Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review that would provide $1.4 billion in provincial tax relief for business and people over three years.  The government is making strategic investments in people, communities and infrastructure to strengthen Ontario’s economic advantage and help manufacturers and other sectors challenged by current economic conditions.


Why Do Deals Fail On Financing?


As an investor, you see a building listed at $500,000, you go offer $475,000
and think you have a good deal, you budget for 25% down and then the bank
calls, bursts your bubble and tells you need to come up with 34% down. WHY?

As multiplex properties have been appreciating at a rate almost twice the
maximum annual rent increase, the net income has been falling at roughly 2%
to 3% per annum for about 4 years and our rates of returns have been
dropping. As investors, we can decide what an acceptable rate of return is,
but that may be a little different to what the risk underwriters at the
banks consider a good rate of return.

As the last thing any of us want to do is, negotiate hard for a couple of
weeks, agree on a price for a property and then have to pull out of a deal
because the bank changes the ground rules on down payment, I have been
working with 2 of the 3 main lenders when it comes to multiplex's over 4
units and now have modified my methodology to do a "Bank" value test before
we make an offer.

Its simple, both TD and BOM are now placing value on Income to determine
lending requirements, cost per unit and comparables are secondary measures.
When using this valuation method, the price of the building you are looking to
buy is irrelevant. All we need to key in is the Gross Income, and the
mortgage rate and amortization, the vacancy factor and maintenance is
determined by the bank and the net income determines the amount the bank is
willing to lend

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